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Bitcoin fractal 2015: things didn’t go quite according to plan

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CRYPTO’S HAVEN’T DONE THIS SINCE 2015…

Bitcoin fractal 2015: things didn't go quite according to plan

Bitcoin fractal 2015: things didn’t go quite according to plan
CONTENT

  • Despite the similarity of the previous phase of decline, recovery is weaker than in 2015.

  • Perhaps the price is not following this fractal right now and may eventually form another low.

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On March 12, Bitcoin recorded its maximum intraday decline in percentage terms. The next day, the price reached a low of $ 3850 and has been rising since then.

Bitcoin fractal 2015: things didn't go quite according to plan

Such price dynamics prompted many to remember that in January 2015, a very similar situation was already observed on the Bitcoin (BTC) charts. One such analyst, Immortal technique (@inmortalcrypto), shared on Twitter a graph comparing the behavior of the currency in January 2015 and now. He believes that in both cases there are four phases:

  1. Downtrend
  2. Surrender
  3. Accumulation
  4. Bullish trend

Fractal 2015 vs 2020

Bitcoin fractal 2015: things didn't go quite according to plan

Downtrend → Capitulation wick → Accumulation → Bull trend

As always, make your own conclusion. # Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/pXgx4jDfXb

– Inmortal technique (@inmortalcrypto) March 24, 2020

We have previously conducted a long-term comparison of these two fractals, but now we will once again try to analyze the price dynamics after the moment of surrender in order to understand whether the subsequent recovery looks the same..

January 2015

The decline in Bitcoin began on November 13, 2014, from a high of $ 453.92. After the currency reached this maximum, the price moved into a 60-day downtrend, which caused its drawdown by 66.5%. The pair managed to find at least $ 152.4, which was the wick that marked the capitulation. The entire daily candle was below the lower border of the Bollinger Band, indicating that the market has already moved beyond the standard deviation of the trading range.

The 11-day uptrend ended on Jan 26 with a high of $ 309.1. This fuse went beyond the upper border of the Bollinger Band. After that, the price stabilized and smoothly launched an uptrend.

Bitcoin fractal 2015: things didn't go quite according to plan

Current dynamics

Bitcoin’s current decline began on February 13, 2020, after hitting a high of $ 10,500. This day marked the beginning of a 29-day downtrend, during which bitcoin lost 63% of its value. This result practically coincides with the drawdown of 2015, but this time everything happened almost twice as fast. The wick, which became the signal of surrender, appeared on the chart on March 13, when the price reached a low of $ 3850. In this case, the entire daily candle was again located below the lower border of the Bollinger Band. Since then, the pair has been growing, having strengthened by 44% in 11 days..

Accordingly, we can say that the main difference between the two compared patterns lies in the rates of recovery – now they are more than half as much as in the first case. Meanwhile, if we proceed from the rate of decline, then everything should have been exactly the opposite, since the downtrend of 2020 was much more aggressive. In addition, the price is very far from the upper border of the Bollinger Band.

However, there are also similarities. The most important of these is the long-term interaction of the price with the 200-day moving average (MA). However, we have already examined this point in detail in the above analysis..

Thus, the current price dynamics of BTC is in many ways similar to the price behavior in January 2015, when Bitcoin formed a long-term base, from which it launched an uptrend that lasted for several years. However, the current recovery from the March 13 low was much weaker than the similar recovery in 2015. This suggests that the price may not be following this fractal right now and may eventually form another low..

Disclaimer

All information contained on our website is published in good faith and objectivity, and for informational purposes only. The reader is solely responsible for any actions he takes based on the information received on our website..

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