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Bitcoin fractals were able to predict the price increase … what next?

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What’s The BEST way to “Predict” Bitcoin’s Price?

Bitcoin fractals were able to predict the price increase ... what next?

Bitcoin fractals were able to predict price increases … what’s next?
CONTENT

  • Perhaps Bitcoin is now repeating a fractal originating on the June 2019 charts.

  • Following the scenario of this fractal, the price should mark a high around $ 7100 and then decline sharply..

  • Market May Bottom at $ 6,250.

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In the first hours of April 16, Bitcoin sank significantly, reaching a minimum of $ 6486. However, this was immediately followed by a very rapid rise in price, which pushed it up to $ 7161.

Commenting on the dynamics of Bitcoin (BTC), popular in the crypto community, trader il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo) shared on Twitter a fractal comparing the current price rise with its behavior last and this year.

Bitcoin fractals were able to predict the price increase ... what next?

Judging by the chart, the MTC rate should soon mark a new maximum, and then begin a vigorous decline. At the same time, il Capo emphasized that different timeframes do not matter in this case. “The same structure gives the same results” – he is sure.

“ Hey but you are comparing 1D vs 1H timeframe ”

If structure is the same, result should be the same. You use EMA crosses for direction, I use fractals. pic.twitter.com/EiiIABAp78

– il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) April 16, 2020

Let’s try to compare these two structures suggested by il Capo.

What happened

The original price movement began on June 26 when Bitcoin peaked at $ 13,764. Then the pair began a gradual decline, trading inside a symmetrical triangle and three times testing the support line for strength (blue arrows).

After the bearish breakout, the price formed two declining lows and started a rally, and then repeated this pattern again. The highs that appeared on the chart as a result of these movements looked very similar (rectangle).

And finally, the subsequent sharp drop in the price ended on March 13 with the formation of a minimum at $ 3875.

Bitcoin fractals were able to predict the price increase ... what next?

You can also highlight a few more interesting characteristics of this movement:

  • Post-bearish highs were set above the 200-MA, while the rest of the price action reversed below this moving average.
  • The size of the bearish move from the breakout level to the first lows was 20%, and to the final low – 50%.
  • The fall from the second high was sharp, only a quarter of the time between the two highs.

What now

The current price movement occurs on a much shorter timeframe. Instead of the daily chart, we use the hourly.

After Bitcoin peaked at $ 7454 on April 7, it began to decline inside the symmetrical triangle and tested the support line (blue arrows) twice. Then the price made a bearish breakout of this pattern.

Next, we see again that the price repeated the same pattern twice: two falling lows and then an increase.

Bitcoin fractals were able to predict the price increase ... what next?

At the time of writing, the high was nearly identical to the first high (rectangle). In addition, both highs were noted above the 200-MA, which also repeats the original fractal.

Thus, up to the present moment, the two structures we are comparing have demonstrated almost complete identity. The only exception was that in the second case, the market only tested the support line twice before the bearish breakout, and the second maximum took the form of a wick.

If this time the ratio of the size of the price move to the first and last lows after the bearish breakout remains the same, it means that BTC will mark the low at $ 6250. In addition, if the ratio of time intervals characterizing the duration of the fall from the second maximum and the distance between the two maximums is confirmed, then such a minimum can be set as early as April 17.

findings

Although we examined the BTC dynamics on two different timeframes, the price behavior showed many similarities. Particularly noteworthy is the interaction of the highs with the 200-MA and the equally sharp rally after the failed bearish breakouts.

This gives us reason to expect that the price will continue to behave in a similar way, including a sharp decline. In addition, the target we have highlighted coincides with the level we identified in another technical analysis of bitcoin..

Do you consider fractals to be a reliable method of technical analysis, especially when comparing different timeframes? Share your opinion in the comments!

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