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Bitcoin halving risks being a passing event

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Bitcoin halving risks being a passing event

Bitcoin halving risks being a passing event
CONTENT

  • The situation this year is very different from previous halvings..

  • Despite recent gains, BTC remains below 2019 range.

  • Requests for information about halving in search engines are growing.

International consortium of news organizations developing transparency standards.

Less than three weeks are left until the next halving of bitcoin, and calm has reigned in the digital currency market, forcing analysts to predict that the upcoming event may be a passing one.

Bitcoin has climbed to fresh highs this week, but the overall market picture remains bearish and technical signals continue to indicate a downtrend on longer-term charts..

Virus effect

Forecasting models, including stock-to-flow ratio and logarithmic plots, diverge from signals before the previous halving, making it difficult to form expectations about the future dynamics of the main digital currency. After two previous halvings in 2012 and 2016, bitcoin showed aggressive growth.

Bitcoin halving risks being a passing event

But it is important to consider that this time we are faced with a completely different economic climate in the world against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, which led to a downturn in industry and plunged financial markets into a state of shock. Crypto assets did not dodge the blow, and bitcoin did not show itself as a defensive asset, having collapsed by 50% last month.

Messari experts analyzed past market behavior through the prism of the current environment and came to the following conclusions:

Past events are not a guarantee that scenarios will repeat in the future.
Today’s situation is strikingly different from the situation in 2016.
Everyone who counts on the hype around halving is at risk of disappointment.

In the 18 days leading up to the halving, Bitcoin is still trading below the range it has spent most of last year in. The weekly relative strength index, meanwhile, settled in the neutral zone.

Moreover, during the last halving period, additional activity was created by the hype around ICO and Ethereum, which in 2016 alone will send the bitcoin price from three-digit to five-digit.

Traders and investors in China often act as a market driver. Search engine query trends show people are interested in information and news related to Bitcoin halving.

Bitcoin halving risks being a passing event

According to industry analyst AltcoinDailyio, there has been a sharp increase in requests for this topic on Chinese social media and especially on Twitter over the past 24 hours..

Analytical platform TheTIE also published figures showing an increase in Twitter activity ahead of the halving, with 58% of tweets mentioning Bitcoin and gold in a positive way, and positive mentions of BTC in the context of halving make up 63% of the total..

The activity in search engines and social networks is, of course, a favorable signal, but there is still a fairly high probability that the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the global economy will deprive Bitcoin of the hype around halving this year..

Disclaimer

All information contained on our website is published in good faith and objectivity, and for informational purposes only. The reader is solely responsible for any actions he takes based on the information received on our website..

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