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Bitcoin is preparing for a new wave of decline

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Bitcoin is preparing for a new wave of decline

Bitcoin is preparing for a new wave of decline
CONTENT

  • Bitcoin Trades Above $ 10,000 Long-Term Support

  • The rebound after the September 3 crash looks unconvincing

  • BTC kicks off the fifth wave as part of the Elliott structure

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The bitcoin rate has been in an upward correction since September 8, however, technical indicators are giving bearish signals again, which herald another wave of sales that can send quotes to the $ 9,700 mark.

The rate of the first cryptocurrency hit hard in the first week of September, and then moved to consolidation with an upward bias. The price formed a small Doji candlestick above the $ 10,000 level.This psychological mark has acted as resistance since February, and now serves as a support.

Now quotes are above the $ 10,000 level, but the threat of testing it remains.

Bitcoin is preparing for a new wave of decline

Long term support

Technical indicators paint a generally neutral picture, but with a touch of negativity. MACD has begun to decline, although it avoids bearish close for now, while RSI and Stochastic RSI are above 50, showing a bullish bias.

BTC Chart by TradingView

Sluggish rollback

There are conflicting signals on the daily charts. The price has been recovering since September 8, but the upward momentum looks too modest – Bitcoin failed to reach even the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level of $ 10,681.

That said, technical indicators point to a bullish picture. MACD rallies alongside RSI and Stochastic RSI, which may be preparing for a bullish crossover.

On two-hour timeframes, there was a short-term rise above the intermediate resistance of $ 10,400, followed by a pullback, which means that this zone will again act as resistance.

Combined with bearish divergence signals from the MACD, which has also entered negative territory, this suggests a decline in price.

Wave analysis

In the technical analysis for Bitcoin on September 11, we wrote that on September 2, the course may have started to form a bearish impulse five-wave structure, and now it is inside the 4th wave, which is represented by a complex corrective structure.

The BTC dynamics of September 13 signals the end of wave 4 (orange in the chart below) and the beginning of the final, fifth wave, which will be bearish.

Bitcoin is preparing for a new wave of decline

The price refrained from an aggressive pullback and avoided touching the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level relative to the bearish move. However, the movement of quotations is clearly limited by a parallel channel, and on September 13, BTC showed an impulsive decline, which indicates the end of the local rally..

The first potential target for the completion of the fifth wave is expected at $ 9,718, where the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level relative to waves 1-3 passes.

A closer look at the recent drawdown reveals that Bitcoin likely completed subwaves 1 and 2 (orange) within the aforementioned fifth wave.

In the area of ​​the current price of $ 10,370, there is an area of ​​intersection of Fibonacci levels in the context of a rebound and a previous fall. Accordingly, here the bullish momentum will most likely fade away, and BTC will resume the bearish move..

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