What the monthly closure says …


38 Closing Activities Day Month End Activities I

What the monthly closure says ...

What BTC Monthly Closing Says About Q4 Outlook

  • Bitcoin broke through symmetrical triangle

  • Long-term technical indicators paint a favorable picture

  • Bitcoin Completes Correction A-B-C

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Bitcoin (BTC) ended August relatively well, however, despite the exit from the neutral pattern, in the short term, cases of a fall in the rate with a subsequent resumption of a bullish trend are possible..

In September, BTC formed a bearish candlestick pattern but closed above the previous resistance level. Thus, now the quotes are probably retesting the support levels..

What the monthly closure says ...

BTC Monthly Close

A long bottom wick also appeared on the chart, which is a sign of upward pressure..

Technical indicators paint a bullish picture. RSI and MACD are rising, with the latter entering positive territory. The Stochastic Oscillator is forming a bullish crossover, indicating an uptrend in the long-term trend.

Resistance on the horizon

Bitcoin rate has been moving northward since reaching a local minimum of $ 10,138 on September 23.

The quotes were growing steadily until they hit the $ 10,959 mark, where the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level is located relative to the previous decline. However, the pullback turned out to be sluggish, and by now Bitcoin is already making a new attempt at an upward breakout..

Technical indicators started to give negative signals – RSI and MACD indicate bearish divergence, although not yet confirmed.

In the event of a bullish breakout, the next resistance is expected at $ 11,200, where the long-term downside resistance line passes.

What the monthly closure says ...

BTC Chart by TradingView

The 2-hour charts show that the price is following the upward support line and may have already broken the symmetrical triangle (dotted line on the chart). This increases the likelihood of retesting the $ 11,200 zone.

MACD has entered the green zone, however, an unconfirmed bearish divergence signal remains.

BTC Chart by TradingView

Wave analysis

Bitcoin may have started forming an impulsive bullish structure on September 23 (blue), completing the first wave on September 26. Sub-waves 1 and 2 are marked in red on the chart.

If the wave analysis is correct, BTC is now in the process of completing wave B, after which wave C will complete the second wave.

The most likely target of reaching the bottom is at $ 10,542, where the 0.5% Fibonacci retracement level is located relative to the bullish move.

BTC Chart by TradingView

It is possible that Bitcoin completed the correction on September 30, when it touched the low of $ 10,658. At the same time, the current rally looks more corrective than impulsive, which means that the cryptocurrency is probably still in the sub-wave B stage..

What the monthly closure says ...

BTC Chart by TradingView

So, BTC may briefly correct to the $ 10,550 area before resuming its upward movement..

The previous analysis of bitcoin can be read here.


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